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Iran To Iraq: Shifting Sands Of Influence And Diplomacy

Tiana Wolf

In the intricate web of Middle Eastern geopolitics, the relationship between Iran and Iraq stands as a compelling testament to constant shifts and profound transformations. Far from being a static partnership, the dynamic between these two sovereign states, officially known as Iran–Iraq relations (Persian: روابط ایران و عراق; Arabic: العلاقات العراقية الإيرانية), has evolved dramatically over decades, moving from intense rivalry to a complex, often surprising, collaboration. This journey, deeply rooted in shared history and intertwined destinies, continues to shape regional stability and global power dynamics.

Understanding the nuances of the Iran-Iraq relationship is crucial for anyone seeking to comprehend the broader geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. It is a story marked by devastating conflict, strategic maneuvering, economic interdependence, and cultural ties, all contributing to a unique bond that defies simple categorization. From historical animosities to contemporary alliances, the trajectory of Iran to Iraq relations offers invaluable insights into the region's past, present, and potential future.

Table of Contents:

A Historical Tapestry: From Rivalry to Complex Coexistence

The relationship between Iran and Iraq is a saga of profound shifts, marked by periods of intense conflict and surprising cooperation. Historically, the two nations have transitioned from an intense rivalry, epitomized by the devastating Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, to a complex collaboration that defines their current interactions. This evolution is not merely a diplomatic shift but a deeply ingrained change in their collective memory and strategic outlook.

The Scar of War: A Shared Memory

The harrowing experiences of the 1980s war are etched deeply in their collective memory. This brutal conflict, which began in 1980 and lasted for eight years, resulted in an immense human cost, with estimates of total casualties ranging from one million to twice that number. Fighting was ended by a 1988 ceasefire, though the resumption of normal diplomatic relations and the withdrawal of troops did not take place until 1990. This period of intense rivalry and bloodshed laid a foundation of mistrust and animosity that would take decades to even begin to heal. The war, initiated by Iraq under Saddam Hussein, aimed to assert regional dominance and settle border disputes, but it ultimately left both nations severely weakened and scarred.

Post-2003: A New Chapter in Iran-Iraq Relations

However, the dawn of the new millennium unveiled a dramatically different landscape. The 2003 invasion of Iraq, which toppled Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and his Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party, was the decisive event that allowed Iran to begin exerting an unprecedented level of influence on Iraqi politics. With Saddam, a formidable Sunni Arab nationalist, removed from power, the political vacuum and subsequent rise of Shia-majority governments in Baghdad created fertile ground for Tehran to expand its reach. This pivotal moment fundamentally reshaped the dynamics of Iran to Iraq relations, paving the way for a new era defined by Tehran's increasing involvement in its western neighbor.

Iran's Deep Dive into Iraqi Politics Post-Saddam

Since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003, Iran has been deeply involved in Iraqi politics. This involvement is not merely superficial; it extends to the very fabric of governance and power structures within Iraq. The removal of a hostile Sunni-led government, replaced by a Shia-dominated political landscape, presented a historic opportunity for Iran to secure its western flank and project its regional influence. Tehran understood this opportunity and moved swiftly to cultivate ties and support various factions within the new Iraqi political order.

More than a dozen Iraqi political parties have ties to Iran, ranging from direct financial and logistical support to ideological alignment. This extensive network allows Tehran significant leverage in Baghdad, particularly in critical moments. For instance, Iran may not micromanage all aspects of governance in Iraq, but Tehran has control over Baghdad when it counts, such as when a prime minister is picked, when an IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) force wants to transit Iraq, or when Iran wants to fire a drone at U.S. military advisers from Iraqi soil. At these moments, Iran can get away with meddling in its neighbor’s affairs, demonstrating a deep-seated influence that few other external actors possess.

This political penetration is a key component of Iran's broader strategy, ensuring that a friendly or at least amenable government is in power in Baghdad. It minimizes potential threats from Iraq and maximizes opportunities for regional projection. The consistent engagement, financial backing, and ideological alignment with various Iraqi political entities underscore the depth of Iran's commitment to shaping the political trajectory of Iraq.

The Strategic Corridor: Iran's Regional Ambitions

A cornerstone of Iran's regional strategy, particularly in its relationship with Iraq, is the establishment of a strategic corridor. Iran’s support for Shia militias in Iraq enabled it to solidify its influence in the country and allowed Tehran to create a strategic corridor starting from Iran, passing through Iraq and Syria, and reaching the Mediterranean coast. This land bridge is not just a logistical route; it is a vital artery for projecting power, moving resources, and linking Iran to its allies in the Levant, most notably Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Assad regime in Syria.

This corridor is integral to what Iran refers to as its "axis of resistance." Iraq provided a linchpin in Iran’s axis of resistance, grouping Bashar Assad’s Syria, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the Palestinian militant group Hamas, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. By securing this land route through Iraq, Iran ensures a continuous supply line for military aid, financial support, and personnel to its proxies and allies. This significantly enhances Tehran's ability to exert pressure on regional adversaries, including Israel and the United States, and to respond to perceived threats. The strategic depth provided by this corridor transforms Iraq from merely a neighbor into a critical component of Iran's broader regional security architecture, solidifying the importance of the Iran to Iraq connection.

Economic Ties and Energy Dependence: A Two-Way Street

Beyond political and military influence, economic ties form a significant pillar of the Iran to Iraq relationship. Iran also exports millions of cubic metres of gas a day to Iraq to fuel its power plants, which are crucial for Iraq's electricity supply. This energy dependence gives Iran considerable leverage over its neighbor, as disruptions to gas supplies could cripple Iraq's already fragile infrastructure and lead to widespread public discontent.

For decades, Iran has worked to control Iraq, using money, militias, and political pressure. This has allowed Tehran to use Iraq as a source of cash and power, helping fund its activities in the region. The economic relationship is not solely about gas exports; it encompasses a wide range of trade, from consumer goods to construction materials. Iranian businesses have found a lucrative market in Iraq, particularly in the Shia-majority southern provinces, where cultural and religious ties are strong. This economic interdependence, while beneficial for both sides in certain aspects, also serves as a tool for Iran to maintain its influence and secure financial resources, further entrenching the complex dynamics of Iran to Iraq relations.

Military Aid and Security Dynamics: Shaping the Battlefield

The military dimension of Iran-Iraq relations has been profoundly shaped by shared security challenges, particularly the rise of extremist groups. When the militant advance of ISIS threatened to overrun large swathes of Iraq in 2014, Iran began to provide military aid to counter the militant advance. This assistance was crucial at a time when the Iraqi army was struggling and international support was still mobilizing. Iran provided technical advisers to the Iraqi government and weapons to the Kurdish Peshmerga, demonstrating a pragmatic approach to security cooperation despite historical tensions.

This military support was often channeled through and strengthened various Shia Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs), many of which have direct ideological and operational links to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). These groups became a vital force in the fight against ISIS, and their success further solidified Iran's position as a key security guarantor in Iraq, deepening the military aspect of the Iran to Iraq relationship.

The Quds Force and Regional Influence

The role of Iran's Quds Force, the extraterritorial arm of the IRGC, and its commander, Qassem Soleimani, was central to this military engagement. Soleimani was instrumental in coordinating Iranian support for Iraqi forces and PMUs. His presence in Iraq symbolized the direct and active role Iran played in shaping the security landscape. The strike, which happened as Soleimani traveled to Baghdad in January 2020, prompted a swift response from Iran, which days later hammered Al Asad air base in Iraq and another U.S. base in Erbil with 13 ballistic missiles. This incident underscored the high stakes involved in the security dynamics between the two nations and the broader region, illustrating how deeply intertwined Iran's military strategy is with its presence in Iraq.

For Iraq, the relationship with Iran is a delicate balancing act. While Iran’s support has been instrumental in certain security contexts, particularly against ISIS, Baghdad also grapples with maintaining its sovereignty and avoiding becoming a mere proxy in regional power struggles. The influence of Iran in Iraq is undeniable, especially in key political and security decisions. As noted, Iran may not micromanage all aspects of governance in Iraq, but Tehran has control over Baghdad when it counts, such as when a prime minister is picked, when an IRGC force wants to transit Iraq, or when Iran wants to fire a drone at U.S. military advisers from Iraqi soil. At these moments, Iran can get away with meddling in its neighbor’s affairs, putting Iraqi sovereignty to the test.

Iraqi leaders often find themselves in a precarious position, needing to appease powerful Iranian-backed factions internally while also trying to cultivate relationships with other international partners, including the United States and various Arab states. This internal and external pressure creates a complex political environment where Baghdad must constantly weigh its options to preserve its national interests without alienating its influential neighbor. The challenge for Iraq is to leverage its strategic location and resources to its own benefit, rather than being merely a battleground for external powers.

The US Factor: A Complex Triangle

The presence of the United States in Iraq adds another layer of complexity to the Iran-Iraq dynamic. For Iran, the U.S. military presence in Iraq is seen as a direct threat and an obstacle to its regional ambitions. This often leads to proxy confrontations on Iraqi soil, further destabilizing the country. For Iraq, the U.S. presence represents a counter-balance to Iranian influence, providing security assistance and economic aid, but it also makes Iraq a potential target in any escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran. This triangular relationship means that decisions made in Washington or Tehran can have immediate and profound consequences for Baghdad, highlighting the fragile nature of Iraq's strategic autonomy amidst the powerful currents of regional geopolitics.

Geopolitical Implications and Future Trajectories

In the complex landscape of Middle Eastern geopolitics, the relationship between Iran and Iraq presents a compelling study of shifts and turns. The unique bond between these two nations has profound implications for regional stability, energy markets, and the balance of power. Iran's established influence in Iraq is a significant factor in any future regional conflict scenario. For instance, discussions among experts on what happens if the United States bombs Iran often involve Iraq as a critical element. As the U.S. weighs the option of heading back into a war in the Middle East, here are some ways the attack could play out, and many of these scenarios involve the potential for Iranian retaliation or proxy actions originating from Iraqi soil.

The future trajectory of Iran to Iraq relations will largely depend on several factors: the internal political stability of Iraq, the evolving dynamics of Iran's regional foreign policy, and the broader geopolitical competition involving global powers. Any significant shift in one of these areas could dramatically alter the nature of their relationship, with ripple effects across the entire Middle East. The ongoing struggle for influence, combined with shared economic and security interests, ensures that the Iran-Iraq relationship will remain a focal point of regional and international attention for the foreseeable future.

Travel and Connectivity: Reflecting Tensions

The geopolitical tensions and security concerns stemming from the complex relationship between Iran and Iraq, and their broader regional context, often manifest in practical ways, such as disruptions to travel and connectivity. For instance, recent reports indicate that airlines are adjusting their routes due to security concerns. Flydubai said it is canceling flights to Iran, Iraq, Israel, and Syria until June 20. Similarly, Lufthansa said it was canceling flights to Tel Aviv and Tehran until July 31. The German flag carrier has also adjusted routes to avoid Iraqi airspace. These cancellations are not merely logistical inconveniences; they are tangible indicators of heightened regional instability and the perceived risks associated with operating in airspace affected by ongoing or potential conflicts.

Such decisions by major airlines reflect the volatile security environment that can arise from the intricate web of relationships and rivalries in the Middle East, including the ever-present dynamics of Iran to Iraq. They serve as a stark reminder that geopolitical tensions have direct impacts on global commerce and personal mobility, underscoring the interconnectedness of security, diplomacy, and everyday life in the region.

Conclusion

The relationship between Iran and Iraq is a multifaceted tapestry woven from threads of history, geopolitics, economics, and security. From the devastating war of the 1980s to the deep political and military influence Iran exerts in post-2003 Iraq, their bond has transformed dramatically. Iran's strategic corridor, economic leverage through gas exports, and military support for various Iraqi factions underscore its profound impact on Baghdad's sovereignty and regional stability. This complex dynamic, often intertwined with the presence of other global powers like the United States, positions Iraq as a critical arena for regional power plays.

Understanding these intricate Iran to Iraq relations is not just an academic exercise; it's essential for grasping the broader geopolitical currents of the Middle East. As this relationship continues to evolve, its implications will undoubtedly reverberate across the region and beyond. We encourage you to share your thoughts and perspectives on this complex dynamic in the comments below. What do you believe are the most significant factors shaping the future of Iran-Iraq relations? For more insights into Middle Eastern geopolitics, explore our other articles on regional security and international relations.

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